Big Ten-- 10 Bold Predictions

10)  Bill O’Brien will be the only new coach to have a worse record in year one than previous season.

·         Urban Meyer and Ohio State would have to have a disastrous season to finish under .500 in 2012. Illinois went 6-6 in 2011, and then added a bowl win against a 6-7 UCLA team in a game which both head coaches had already been fired. Tim Beckman and Illinois starts with a solid test in MAC West favorite Western Michigan and a trip to a bottom-feeding Arizona State before get-right games against Charleston Southern and Louisiana Tech. Home games against Penn State, Indiana and Minnesota should give them at least 6 probably 7 wins. But if they don’t get to 7 in their first 10 games finishing with Purdue and @Northwestern should provide ample opportunity to pick up number 7. Penn State won’t have a bowl game, so to avoid a worse record they have to win 9 of 12 regular season games. Unfortunately, the Nittany Lions are void of offensive talent making every game on the schedule is losable, which is even worse news for a team in such an uncertain state.

9) Indiana will go over .500… against the spread.

·         Almost called for a breakthrough upset because I think sophomore QB Tre Roberson has shown some promise and playmakers like WRs Kofi Hughes and Shane Wynn give the Hoosiers some offensive ability. The defense is so bad the offense won’t win games, but they should score enough to keep games closer than the experts think. Especially since the offense is young and teams may sub down early on defense.

8) Iowa Senior QB James Vandenberg will break Chuck Long’s passing records.

·         Long’s single season passing yards and passing TDs records have stood since 1985. This season James Vandenberg will break both (3,297 yards and 27 TDs). Vandenberg did lose his best target (Marvin McNutt) but Kenan Davis should be able to fill in and the lack of a star runner should lead to more passing opportunities for the Ohio native.

7) Penn State will lose to Ohio… University.

·         Frank Solich is a solid coach and has built a solid MAC program in Athens. He has had things moving in the right direction for a few years and this seems to be the year they are ready for a breakthrough non-conference win and finally a MAC Title. Solich has the best QB he’s had since Eric Crouch won a Heisman at Nebraska, in junior Tyler Tettleton. Tettleton doesn’t have the running ability of Crouch, although his 658 yards and 10 TDs are nothing to be ashamed of. But Solich has his team passing more and Tettleton (3,306 yards with 28 TDs) looks primed to tear apart a young Penn State secondary.

6) Michigan State and Wisconsin will meet again in Indy.

·         On the surface that pick is not that bold, while Michigan may be the favorite according to preseason rankings no one would be shocked by Michigan State’s presence in the title game. The boldness comes from the other side, where I think Wisconsin will need help by way of a tiebreaker to get out of the Leaders division, a division where Big Ten Title-ineligible Ohio State will boast the best record and Purdue will tie Wisconsin with a 5-3 conference record.

5) The Big Ten will go 3-0 versus Notre Dame.

·         After the Irish play Navy in Ireland they come straight home to face an improved Purdue Boilermakers team. The Irish will be tired from traveling, giving the less-talented Purdue team a good chance for a small upset. Michigan State gets Notre Dame next, at night in East Lansing, where the Irish will need all the luck they can get just to get any of their QBs out alive. Then they have Michigan coming to South Bend. Michigan will be two weeks removed from their drubbing at the hands of Alabama, but Notre Dame will still be licking their wounds courtesy of the Spartans. The Wolverine offense will continue to get healthy entering Big Ten play against a marginal Notre Dame defense.

4) Le’Veon Bell will finish with better rushing stats than Monte Ball.

·         Bell no longer has to share carries with Edwin Baker, Ball still has to share with James White. Despite the fact both offenses lose their All-Big Ten QBs, key WRs and a few linemen, both teams should win a lot of games. But Mark Dantonio has built a powerhouse defense that will allow the offense to focus onpounding the ball. Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s defense will likely force the offense to outscore opponents and without a QB as trustworthy as Scott Tolzien and Russell Wilson (49 TDs, 10 Ints and 73% completion percentage in ’10-‘11) possessions may be limited and running the ball may not look quite as easy as in recent years.

3) Wisconsin will lose two games in Camp Randall.

·         Ok, really I’m just picking Ohio State and Michigan State to beat them in Madison. And even though Minnesota is slightly improving and a rivalry game I don’t see them having much of a chance. Illinois on the other hand has a stout defense and a talented, experienced QB and will get the Badgers at a good time, after a physical battle in Lincoln. Wisconsin is not the same powerhouse offense and the SEC-like defensive lines of Ohio State and Michigan State will show that.

2) Denard Robinson will finish outside of the top 2 in total offense.

·         There are a few candidates that could top Michigan’s playmaking QB; Shoelace isn’t the only dual-threat QB in the conference. Robinson also faces several top defenses.  Kain Colter at Northwestern, Braxton Miller at Ohio State and Nathan Scheelhaase are the three most likely culprits. But the Big Ten has some depth when it comes to potential QB stars. James Vandenberg of Iowa won’t have many rushing yards which will hurt his chances. While Taylor Martinez of Nebraska, MarQueis Gray of Minnesota and Tre Roberson of Indiana have the running thing down, but need work in the passing game.

1) Following the script written by his mentor, Mark Dantonio will lead Michigan State to an undefeated regular season.

·        Since 2002 only three times has a Big Ten team gone undefeated… in conference play. Ohio State and Iowa each went 8-0 in 2002 and Ohio State did it again in 2006. Mark Dantonio was the defensive coordinator for Jim Tressel during the 14-0 national title season in 2002. In 2006 Dantonio and his Cincinnati team provided Tressel a speed bump on the Buckeyes way to a second undefeated regular season. The last Big Ten team to run through the regular season unscathed prior to the 2002 was the Charles Woodson-led 1997 Michigan Wolverines. Meaning in the previous 15 seasons only four Big Ten teams have reached 8-0 in conference and only three of those were perfect in non-conference play, too. The 1997 Wolverines and the 2002 Buckeyes each went on to win the National Championship, while the 2006 Buckeyes lost to an Urban Meyer-coached Florida squad.

·       Now that you know the history, here is the current. The Spartans lost a lot on offense, but that is not this team’s mainstay, they play defense, and they do it well. The most talented opponent is probably Ohio State, but they get them at home and early, which is probably when you want the young Buckeyes. The meat of the schedule comes from October 13^th- November 3^rd when the Spartans get Iowa, @ Michigan, @ Wisconsin and Nebraska before a late bye week. It goes without saying that is when we will really find out whether the 2012 Spartans are champions or not.