Saturday, August 18, 2012

SEC East


1)      Georgia OVERVIEW:
Mark Richt has an experienced and talented QB and defense. The loss of Isaiah Crowell could cause problems in the running game but Georgia is still the cream of the crop and my favorite to repeat as SEC East champs.

KEY GAME: Florida in Jacksonville on October 20th.
This is always Georgia’s biggest game, but especially this season because it very well could decide who represents the East in the SEC Title game. A trip to South Carolina 3 weeks earlier could be just as important standings-wise, but doesn’t have quite the same rivalry feel.

HEISMAN THREAT: Junior QB Aaron Murray
Murray has thrown for over 3,000 yards in each of his first two seasons at Georgia and this year should be no different, however he will need the emergence of a running back to help slow down the relentless pass rush of Florida and South Carolina.

PREDICTED FINISH: 11-1 (7-1)
The schedule sets up nicely because the crossover games for Georgia are Mississippi and @ Auburn, which means they avoid LSU, Alabama and Arkansas. However, early trips to Missouri and South Carolina could be tough. I think South Carolina gets them.

2)      Florida
OVERVIEW:
The Gators were not good in Will Muschamp’s first season as Head Coach. Charlie Weiss is gone so the offense will go back to doing what the Gator’s players were recruited to do in the spread. Ten returners on defense and only three lost letterman has to have Muschamp excited about his defense.

KEY GAME: Georgia in Jacksonville on October 20th.
Once again a home game against South Carolina could be equally important, but the rivalry puts this game over the top. Muschamp is 0-1 versus Georgia, probably shouldn’t fall to 0-2 if he wants to have a long tenor in Gainesville.

HEISMAN THREAT: Junior WR Andre Debose
The QB position is up for a battle and I don’t see Florida settling on a feature back, so I had to look elsewhere. Debose only caught 16 passes last season but has great speed and will likely return kicks. With the new offensive coordinator who will likely spread things out a small, speedy guy like Debose can thrive. 

PREDICTED FINISH: 10-2 (6-2)
Unlike Georgia, Florida does have to play one of the big three from the West (LSU in the Swamp on Oct. 6), but I think they can manage that game. The early trip to Knoxville while the offense is still figuring things out will give the Gators their first loss and Georgia will hand them their second. However, they will win out, including a huge win over in-state rival Florida State to cap it off.

3)      South Carolina
OVERVIEW:

Steve Spurrier is still looking for a SEC East title, he has a highly touted defensive line, a go-to-guy at running back and he might… might have a Quarterback to take him to the promise land in Connor Shaw.

KEY GAME: The month of October
Yikes… Georgia, @ LSU, @ Florida, Tennessee, that’s the schedule for October. Most teams will thank their lucky stars if they could go 1-3, to compete for a title the Gamecocks will need to go 3-1 at worst. 

HEISMAN THREAT: Junior RB Marcus Lattimore
Lattimore has nearly 2,000 all-purpose yards in his first two seasons as a Gamecock and will likely be a first rounder is he can stay healthy for the entire season. He should be helped by steady QB play from Connor Shaw, whose running ability may take some extra pressure off of Lattimore.

PREDICTED FINISH: 9-3 (5-3)
I think their brutal schedule in the month of October would be too much for pretty much any team in college football. They start off right beating Georgia but wear down on the road against LSU and Florida, then just don’t have enough gas to beat Tennessee. The Gamecocks have three other big test, week 5 against Missouri, week 10 against Arkansas after a bye and their annual showed @ Clemson.

4)      Tennessee
OVERVIEW:
The Volunteers have been away from the national spotlight for a little while, but with Tyler Bray at Quarterback and a conference-high 19 starters returning they are loaded for a run at a New Year’s Day bowl game.

KEY GAME: Florida September 15th.
Not only is it a rivalry game for Tennessee it is their first chance to show the world that the 2012 version of the Volunteers will not have a losing record like the 2010 and 2011 versions. They will have other chances for marquee wins with trips to Georgia and South Carolina and a home game against Alabama, but Tennessee wants to show the world early against the Gators.

HEISMAN THREAT: Junior QB Tyler Bray
Bray has 35 TD passes through two seasons while splitting time due to injuries. With his 5 linemen returning and 5 of his top 6 receivers back, including 1,000 yard receiver Da’Rick Rodgers, Bray looks to match his number of TD passes in his first two seasons.

PREDICTED FINISH: 9-3 (5-3)
Nine wins would bring a lot of smiles to Ole Rocky Top and it just might happen. Beating Florida at home will kick start a great season, but roadblocks @ Georgia and home against Alabama will hurt. But the tough schedule South Carolina faces should give Tennessee a good chance @ South Carolina. But I’m going off the beaten path and saying Missouri sneaks in to Knoxville and steals a game to give the Vols their third and final loss.

5)      Missouri
OVERVIEW:
A move to the SEC figures to be a painful one for any team, especially a team coming from a more finesse conference like the Big 12. But any transition is made easier when done with a do-it-all QB like James Franklin and proven weapons like WR/PR T.J. Moe, RB Henry Josey, RB Kendial Lawrence and a freshman sensation like WR Dorial Green-Beckham.

KEY GAME: @ Texas A&M on November 24th.
Both of the newcomers are going to struggle in their new, tougher conference. I expect this game in College Station, Texas to decide which of the two former Big 12 schools get to end their season in a bowl game.

HEISMAN THREAT: Junior QB James Franklin
I wanted to throw a curveball with WR/PR T.J. Moe or super-freshman D.G.B., but in the end when a QB throws for over 2,800 yards and runs for over 1,000 yards and compiles 36 TDs as a sophomore you have to take notice. I’m sure SEC Defensive Coordinators have and Franklin will have his hands full.

PREDICTED FINISH: 7-5 (3-5)
I foresee a very up-and-down season for the Tigers. They should win their four non-conference games (SE Louisiana, Arizona State, @UCF and Syracuse). As far as conference play I see them dropping one they shouldn’t (Vanderbilt) and winning one they shouldn’t (@Tennessee).

6)      Vanderbilt
OVERVIEW:
Aaron Rodgers’ little brother Jordan has Vandy fan and Head Coach James Franklin hoping for a return to a bowl game. Fifteen returning starters give the Commodores an added sense of hope. But a tough SEC schedule as well as two road trips to BCS schools in non-conference play means they will have to work.

KEY GAME: @ Northwestern on September 8th.
Most team’s key games take place in conference, but Vandy is looking for a conference title, they are looking for six wins. The best way for an SEC team to get six wins is to win all four non-conference games and only have to pick up two in conference and with Kentucky and Mississippi both on the road even that is assured. The other three non-conference games should be W’s (Presbyterian, UMass and @Wake Forest) the only question mark is Northwestern.

HEISMAN THREAT: Senior QB Jordan Rodgers
Somehow he morphs into his brother and sets college football on fire. Really their best offensive weapon is Zac Stacy the 1,000 yard RB.

PREDICTED FINISH: 6-6 (3-5)
An early loss at Northwestern means the Commodores have to steal a game in conference play while holding serve against Mississippi and Kentucky. A letdown/look-ahead game by Missouri allows the ‘Dores to grab that precious third conference win and a win @Wake Forest to close the season gives Vandy what they want: back-to-back bowl trips.

7)      Kentucky
OVERVIEW:
The Wildcats managed five wins last season thanks in large part to a weak non-conference schedule and the presence of Mississippi one the conference slate. They return eleven starters, but there just isn’t that much talent there for Joker Phillips.

KEY GAME: @ Louisville on September 2nd.
The game is on a Sunday before the NFL season kicks off, which means the game will garner a decent audience even though it’s not being played by two great teams. Louisville is improving and winning the state away from Kentucky, a win here would really help Phillips.

HEISMAN THREAT: A basketball player John Calipari loans to the football team.
Senior QB Morgan Newton came in as a highly regarded prospect, but hasn’t panned out. It’s supremely unlikely, but if he could, out-of-nowhere, live up to his recruiting rankings he could make some noise.

PREDICTED FINISH: 3-9 (0-8)
Louisville is just better right now, as is every team in the SEC other than Mississippi, who isn’t on Kentucky’s schedule this season. Samford is a easy W, but Western Kentucky isn’t and neither is Kent State, 1-11 isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

PROJECTED FINISH
Georgia............11-1.....7-1
Florida.............10-2.....6-2
South Carolina...9-3......5-3
Tennessee.........9-3......5-3
Missouri............7-5......3-5
Vanderbilt.........6-6......3-5

Kentucky..........3-9......0-8

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